Analysis of Projectiles Near Smara: Iranian-Made Missiles Suspected
A defense expert has indicated that projectiles reported to have fallen near Smara in Moroccan territory on June 27 are likely Iranian-made missiles.
The researcher compared photos of the debris taken by local citizens, suggesting that the remains belong to a missile known as "Arash." This missile is utilized by groups affiliated with Iran, including Hezbollah. The separatist front known as Polisario has previously received training from Hezbollah in Syria, and the organization has shared images of these missiles on social media, indicating their possession.
Historical Context
This isn’t the first instance of such displays. Armed members of the Polisario militia have showcased Iranian-made "Arash" missiles, specifically of 122mm caliber, on social media platforms.
The missiles, originally of Russian design, have been developed by Iran over several years. However, a former member of the Polisario noted that the missile’s explosive capabilities have diminished due to modifications.
A Moroccan report highlighted that these missiles were used in attacks on Smara, particularly in October and November 2023, as well as in Mahbas on November 5, 2024. The display of these missiles in 2024 coincided with reports of Morocco and Iran initiating negotiations to restore diplomatic relations, which were severed on May 1, 2018.
Iranian Weapons in Polisario’s Arsenal
Recent revelations regarding the Polisario’s possession of "Arash Standard" missiles, which have a range of 250 kilometers, underscore a significant escalation in the group’s military capability. These weapons are believed to have been funneled into the region via channels involving Hezbollah and Algeria, reinforcing the notion of Iranian military support for the Polisario.
Morocco, which severed its diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2018 over similar allegations, is increasingly concerned. Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita has presented compelling evidence indicating arms trafficking facilitated by Algeria.
Algeria, viewed as a central player in this crisis, faces accusations of aiding the transfer of Iranian weapons to the Polisario camps in Tindouf. Morocco condemns Algeria’s overtly hostile approach, which is perceived as a catalyst for regional instability and exacerbates tensions over the disputed Western Sahara.
Iran: Diplomatic Openings Amid Strategic Ambiguity
Despite these escalating tensions, there are conflicting signals from Iran. In June 2023, the Iranian Foreign Minister spoke publicly about the possibility of reconciliation with Morocco, closely followed by unofficial communications.
However, any potential rapprochement hinges on a fundamental shift in Iran’s stance regarding the Western Sahara issue. For Morocco, explicit recognition of its sovereignty over the territory is a non-negotiable red line. Without this concession, any attempts at dialogue are likely to remain ineffective, particularly as evidence continues to mount regarding Iran’s ongoing support for the Polisario.
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