The latest edition of the Elcano Royal Institute’s barometer, a respected survey conducted in Spain, indicates that Morocco and Russia are regarded as the two most significant external threats by the Spanish public. According to the report published on “Infodefensa,” 55% of Spaniards view Morocco as the primary threat, while 33% consider Russia to be the second most concerning.
These results reflect deep-seated concerns related to geopolitical issues and historical tensions, as well as regional and international dynamics shaping public opinion in Spain in 2025.
### Morocco: A Neighboring Concern
Spanish anxiety regarding Morocco stems from several factors, notably geographic proximity and ongoing political disputes over the territories of Ceuta and Melilla, both Spanish enclaves located on Morocco’s northern coast. Morocco has been asserting its claim over these cities for decades, while Spain maintains that they are integral parts of its territory.
Tensions are occasionally exacerbated by issues such as irregular migration and border management, which heightens the sense of threat among Spaniards. Ideologically, data suggests that right-leaning Spaniards are more likely to view Morocco as a threat, potentially influenced by political rhetoric focusing on national sovereignty and border security.
On the other hand, left-leaning individuals display comparatively less sensitivity toward Morocco, reflecting differing political priorities within Spanish society. Despite these differences, the 55% consensus indicates a broad recognition of Morocco as a concern, irrespective of political affiliation.
### Russia: A Global Threat Amidst the Ukraine War
Russia ranks second in Spanish concerns, closely tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine, which continues to overshadow European security. Although Spain is not directly facing Russia, its membership in the European Union and NATO integrates it into the broader European security landscape.
Approximately 33% of Spaniards view Russia as a threat, likely reflecting fears regarding the economic repercussions of the conflict, such as rising energy prices, alongside concerns about potential military escalation. Intriguingly, the Spanish left seems to harbor greater fears of Russia compared to the right, possibly due to sensitivities around authoritarian policies and Russian interventions in European affairs.
Notably, Russian President Vladimir Putin received the lowest ratings in the Elcano survey, indicating a highly negative perception among Spaniards.
### United States: A Rise in Distrust
In addition to Morocco and Russia, the barometer reveals a notable increase in distrust toward the United States, rising from 5% to 19% in 2025. This shift coincides with the beginning of President Donald Trump’s second term, which sparked considerable controversy in Europe during his first term.
The Spanish left, in particular, appears to perceive the U.S. as an increasing threat, potentially due to differences in values or foreign policy.
### National Security and the Role of the European Union
Despite these concerns, the survey indicates that 60% of Spaniards believe their country does not face an immediate regional threat. This sense of security may be attributable to confidence in international alliances, particularly the European Union, which enjoys strong support from 83% of Spaniards. This backing reflects an understanding of the importance of European integration in addressing security and economic challenges.
### Global Leader Perceptions
A noteworthy aspect of the barometer is the positive evaluation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who received the highest ratings among global leaders. This support underscores widespread sympathy for Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression. In contrast, both Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received extremely low ratings, indicating public disapproval of their policies.
Source
