A recent survey conducted by the Spanish Center for Sociological Research “CIS”, regarding the fears and doubts of citizens, shows that the level of anxiety about the possibility of armed conflict has noticeably increased within Spanish society.
According to the survey results published on Thursday, November 27, by the website “Elindependiente,” 66.2% of Spaniards have considered at some point the possibility of the country entering into war in the coming years. Among these, 42.2% consider Morocco to be the most likely party to be an adversary of Spain, coming in second after Russia.
According to the center’s report, which is a public government institution, nearly 28 out of every 100 Spaniards see the possibility of a war with Morocco as “plausible.” This means one in four citizens.
War Tops Spaniards’ Fears
The report confirms that the fear of wars and international conflicts has become the primary concern for Spaniards, who admit that they live with a constant feeling of fear, surpassing concerns related to health, the economy, or housing.
In this context, 76.8% of this group stated that they fear the escalation of armed tensions in a world they describe as “unstable and filled with divisions.”
Furthermore, 68% of respondents believe that the world is heading towards a worse state, while 27.3% adopt a more optimistic approach. When asked about the internal situation of Spain, 67.7% considered that the country is experiencing a negative phase, compared to 26.8% who view it positively.
Russia First… Then Morocco
According to the survey, 57% of those expecting the possibility of war believe that Russia will be the likely first enemy of Spain, followed by Morocco at 42.2%. Then comes the United States at 30.2%.
The list also includes China (11.2%) and Israel (3%). The likelihood of a civil war breaking out within Spain remains very low and does not exceed 2.1%.
The survey was conducted based on 2,000 phone calls between November 3 and 11, 2025. It included questions regarding the general sense of security and the level of anxiety about international tensions.
The Moroccan Threat
The results of the “CIS” survey reflect what was previously recorded by the last barometer from the “Real Instituto Elcano” for international studies (May – June 2025), which revealed that the level of empathy among Spaniards towards Morocco does not exceed 4.6 out of 10. This level is lower than that of countries such as Italy, Ukraine, or even Palestine.
The same barometer indicates that anxiety about irregular migration still ranks high among the priorities of Spaniards and Europeans, surpassing concerns about the war in Ukraine or issues of poverty.
Several issues play a role in shaping this general mood towards Morocco, such as the situation in Ceuta and Melilla. Past migration crises across the borders, and the public response in Spain concerning the issue of Western Sahara.
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