The High Commission for Planning reported that economic growth is expected to reach 4.6% in the second quarter of 2025.
In a briefing on the economic outlook for the first quarter of 2025 and projections for the second and third quarters, the Commission noted that this growth is driven primarily by non-agricultural activities, particularly the services sector, which has been growing at a pace significantly higher than its average growth rate from 2010 to 2019.
The report also indicated that the extractive industries sector likely benefited from increasing global demand for raw phosphates, leading to a notable rise in exports amid ongoing pressure on global fertilizer prices.
Additionally, construction activities have seen a recovery of 6.8%, bolstered by the acceleration of large infrastructure projects.
### Agriculture
The agricultural sector is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of approximately 4.7% in the second quarter of 2025 year-on-year, contributing 0.5 percentage points to overall economic growth.
Despite a general increase in crop production, varying trends are expected due to erratic weather conditions experienced during the fall and spring seasons of 2024/2025. Rising temperatures and uneven rainfall across regions may have impacted certain crops, particularly fruit trees and oilseeds. However, improvements are expected in the harvest of grains, seasonal vegetables, and sugar crops, especially in irrigated areas less affected by water shortages, partly supported by aid measures.
Regarding livestock production, which has seen a temporary decline since 2022, it is expected to remain below trend levels in the second quarter of 2025, despite some improvements in poultry activities.
Overall, the value-added growth across all production sectors is estimated to remain stable in the second quarter of 2025, matching the 4.5% growth recorded in the first quarter.
Additionally, the Commission stated that national economic growth reached 4.8% in the first quarter of 2025, attributed to improvements in agricultural activities and continued growth in value added from secondary and tertiary sectors.
Internal demand contributed 8.5 percentage points to GDP growth during the first quarter of 2025, approaching its highest level since the post-COVID recovery. In contrast, external demand continued to lose momentum more rapidly during the same period, accounting for a loss of 3.8 percentage points from economic growth.
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