An analytical report attributed to “Bloomberg” provided a new reading of the balance of African football power coinciding with the launch of the 2026 World Cup, placing the Senegal national team at the top of the African teams expected to exceed expectations and reach the World Cup final.
According to the report, which relied on a statistical model developed by an African economics expert at “Bloomberg Economics,” the so-called “ability to exceed expectations” index measures teams’ capacity to achieve results that go beyond traditional expectations, based on a set of factors including player quality, economic resources, the institutional framework of football, in addition to the number of professional players in major European leagues.
Senegal’s Leadership
The model indicates that the Senegal national team is the most likely African team to advance to very advanced stages in the 2026 World Cup, slightly ahead of the Moroccan team, in a ranking that reflects a significant closeness between the two sides.
The report sees that Senegal benefits from a strong generation of professional players in Europe, along with a technical and tactical stability that has contributed to enhancing its position on the international stage in recent years.
What about Morocco?
In contrast, the report places the Moroccan team within the same circle of direct competition at the African level, based on the historic achievement in the 2022 World Cup when it reached the semifinals, which is the best achievement for an African and Arab team in the history of the tournament.
The analysis indicates that Morocco also has a broad base of players active in major European leagues, in addition to clear developments in football infrastructure, making it one of the top candidates to repeat or surpass its previous achievements.
Criteria Beyond Results
The economic model used in the report confirms that the evaluation of teams does not rely solely on sports results, but also takes into account broader factors, including: the size of the base of professional players abroad, the strength of football and organizational institutions, and economic and demographic indicators.
Based on these criteria, the national teams of Senegal and Morocco surpass other African teams, while other teams like Ivory Coast and South Africa come in later ranks, despite possessing promising elements.
The “Bloomberg Economics” report concluded that Africa enters the 2026 World Cup with two prominent teams capable of breaking expectations, namely Senegal and Morocco, with a slight advantage for Senegal in the statistical model, although this does not translate to a definitive outcome on the field.
