The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has reported that with the increasing frequency of heatwaves, global demand for air conditioning may triple by 2050, while urging the adoption of less polluting cooling solutions.
A study titled “Global Cooling Monitoring,” published by UNEP on the sidelines of the United Nations Climate Conference (COP 30) in Belém, Brazil, indicated that “demand for air conditioning could more than triple by 2050 if current trends continue.”
The report highlighted that this increase will be driven by population growth, increased wealth, a rise in extreme heatwaves, and greater access to more polluting and less efficient cooling systems for low-income households.
Consequently, greenhouse gas emissions from air conditioning are projected to nearly double by 2050 compared to levels in 2022, reaching approximately 7.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, according to UNEP forecasts.
The organization recommended widely adopting “passive” cooling solutions, such as shading, natural ventilation, vegetation, and improved insulation, along with other solutions like low-energy cooling and hybrid cooling systems (combining fans and low-energy air conditioners).
UNEP emphasized that nearly two-thirds of potential emission reductions “come from passive and low-energy solutions,” underscoring the need to integrate these solutions into national policies and urban planning.
According to the organization, these projects could enhance access to cooling for an additional three billion people by 2050, including vulnerable and low-income groups, while also generating “$17 trillion in cumulative energy cost savings by 2050.”
Estimates from Climate Works suggest that three billion new air conditioners will be sold worldwide between 2025 and 2050.
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